'Millions could die in bird flu outbreak'

NEW DELHI: Scientists have sounded a global alert on avian flu following reports of human-to-human transmission of this virus. Comparing the patterns of avian influenza to the 1918 flu epidemic which killed millions around the world, scientists at the New England Journal of Medicine said: "The emergence of human cases of avian influenza A (H5N1) virus infection in Asia is an unprecedented warning." They urged the world to "put up safeguards while the storm is still gathering".
"A virus with the potential to cause a pandemic could emerge suddenly, by way of a single reassortment event, or more gradually, by adaptive mutations during human infections, with the virus incrementally improving its transmissibility," says the NEJM.
It goes on to add how the virus has been getting more lethal. It has increased environmental resistance, and is expanding its mammalian host range. "All prerequisites for the start of a pandemic have been met save one, namely, genetic changes in this virus that would allow it to achieve efficient human-to-human transmission," they say.
In India, a monitoring group was set up by the director-general of health services when the first serious reports of avian flu started coming in from neighbouring countries. Officials say the government has been alert and no cases have been detected in India yet.
However, in the wake of the latest reports, a meeting is now slated for February 3.
During 2004, a highly lethal avian influenza A virus caused poultry disease in 8 Asian countries and killed 32.